South Caucasus: Control of Corridors, Not Territories, Emerges as Key
The South Caucasus is undergoing a significant transformation, shifting focus from territorial disputes to control over vital transit corridors, according to Georgian analyst Paata Zakareishvili. The region’s future hinges on who manages routes and infrastructure, and can integrate into global systems, rather than simply controlling territory. For decades, the South Caucasus was defined by conflict and external influence.
Now, control over flows – primarily transport and energy – is becoming paramount. Azerbaijan is emerging as a central hub, leveraging control over energy flows, participation in Central Asia-EU transit corridors, and a strategic alliance with Turkey. This functional leadership, focused on facilitating movement across the region, is reshaping the geopolitical landscape.
Armenia, meanwhile, faces an existentially complex situation, retaining significant infrastructural dependence on Russia. Despite political aspirations for Western integration, Armenia’s railways and gas system remain largely under Russian management. However, Yerevan is actively seeking to integrate into regional corridors, including facilitating links between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan.
Turkey plays a crucial role in shaping this new order, acting as an “architect” of the region’s emerging system. Corridors, such as the TRIPP and Middle Corridor projects, are evolving into powerful tools for stability, fostering interdependence and predictability. Experts suggest that peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan will increasingly be driven by pragmatic economic interdependence and participation in these corridors, rather than solely through reconciliation.
The control of these routes represents a new form of institutional power, offering a more resilient and stable framework for the region.
Topics: #south #caucasus #corridors
