Azerbaijan 25.03.2026 Behind Azerbaijan’s export boom: What the numbers don’t show JAMnews Baku Share Share Analysis of Azerbaijan’s non-oil exports In recent years, pro-government websites have frequently published formulaic news reports along the lines of: “In the first X months of this year, exports reached $Y million, an increase of Z%.” These figures are typically sourced from the State Customs Committee or the State Statistics Committee, and the language often repeats familiar terms such as “non-oil exports”, “diversification”, and “reforms.” The positive aspect of such reporting is that the figures themselves are not fabricated; they are based on official statistics. For example, in 2025, exports of fruit and vegetables amounted to approximately $901 million , showing growth both in value and in volume compared to the previous year. However, numbers alone do not tell a success story.
When these figures are not accompanied by basic questions — “how much is that?”, “why did it grow?”, “who benefits?”, and “will it last?” — they can create the impression that “everything is going well”, while the real picture remains unclear. This article explains, in simple terms, how to read such data-driven reports. What do these indicators actually mean?
Why are they so widely promoted? What is left unsaid? And what could this mean for ordinary people?
The debate was prompted by a statement from Nikol Pashinyan: “The energy systems of Armenia and Azerbaijan will be linked and will make mutual use of export and import opportunities.” The most basic question is: is “$901 million” a large amount? It may sound impressive, but on its own it says very little. Without comparing it to the country’s total exports, the figure lacks context.
According to customs data for 2025, Azerbaijan ’s total exports amounted to around $25.0 billion. The same data show that 85.51% of exports came from the oil and gas sector. In other words, roughly $21.4 billion of that total was generated by hydrocarbons.
Non-oil exports accounted for about $3.63 billion, or 14.49% of the total. Seen in this context, fruit and vegetable exports — worth $901.5 million — made up just 3.60% of overall exports. However, within the non-oil segment, their share was much higher, at 24.85%.
It is also important to distinguish between value (in monetary terms) and volume (physical quantities, measured in tonnes). If both the value and the volume of fruit and vegetable exports are increasing, this may point to genuine growth in production and sales. For example, such reports often highlight year-on-year growth compared to 2024: +27.3% in value and +23.2% in volume.
While part of the increase in value may be explained by rising prices, the growth in volume suggests that the trend is not driven by prices alone. In some cases, the headlines point to “growth”, but the underlying dynamics tell a different story. For instance, last year’s hazelnut exports show this clearly.
In 2025, Azerbaijan exported 18,972.7 tonnes of hazelnuts worth $170.7 million. According to calculations by Report.az, this represents a 32% increase in value but a 6% decline in volume compared to the previous year. What this means in practice is simple: fewer tonnes were sold, but at a higher price.
In other words, the reported “significant growth” reflects price increases rather than an expansion in production. The same logic applies to construction materials. According to the State Statistics Committee’s report on socio-economic development for January–February 2025, production of cement clinker reached 612,900 tonnes, or 111.2% year-on-year (an increase of 11.2%).
This figure may point to increased construction activity, but it does not, on its own, prove that “the construction sector is booming”. At times, growth is driven by state-funded projects; in others, inventories may be building up — something the report itself also tracks through separate data on unsold stock. The simplified table below helps to put the overall picture of 2025 into perspective: Indicator Amount What it shows Total exports (2025) ~$25.0bn Total value of goods sold abroad Oil and gas exports ~$21.4bn (85.51%) Exports remain heavily dependent on oil and gas Non-oil exports ~$3.63bn (14.49%) The segment described as “diversification” Fruit and vegetable exports $901.5m (24.85% of non-oil exports) One of the main drivers of non-oil exports Hazelnut exports $170.7m (4.70% of non-oil exports) Growth recorded Ilham Aliyev in Davos: ‘Azerbaijan is the only safe route between Europe and Central Asia’ The main topics of discussion included Azerbaijan’s investment priorities, its energy strategy, regional transport links, and relations with Armenia in the post-conflict period.
The widespread circulation of such reports can be explained by three main factors. First, they are a “ready-made product”. State bodies regularly publish statistical data, and media outlets turn it into news with minimal processing.
For example, a report on fruit and vegetable exports is often published almost verbatim, citing the State Customs Committee as its source.
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