Armine Martirosyan Yerevan Share Share Examining Armenia’s Security Strategy
Armenia’s approach to ensuring its security is facing significant criticism. The volatile situation in the Middle East, marked by shifting power dynamics and border disputes, echoes the dynamics of the South Caucasus following the 2020 conflict. Experts argue that this has created a regional order dominated by force rather than law, prompting concerns about Yerevan’s current strategy of concessions.
Lilit Grigoryan, a CIS affairs expert, contends that this approach constitutes “not peace, but defeatism.”
Grigoryan advocates for strengthening Armenia’s position, highlighting the third meeting of Armenian and Azerbaijani experts and the Zayed Prize for Peace as positive developments. However, she notes the broader regional context, particularly Iran’s instability and the potential for Israel’s intervention, which could further complicate the situation. The shifting international landscape, including eased sanctions and weapon transfers, adds to the challenges.
Analysts point to the South Caucasus’s historical trajectory, where Russia, Turkey, and Iran have historically dictated terms, often to Armenia’s detriment. This “regionalism” model, characterized by a lack of international law, presents a significant obstacle. Armenia’s reliance on regional powers, rather than Western institutions, is viewed as a flawed strategy.
The prevailing view emphasizes the need for deterrence, advocating for a sober assessment of the region’s escalating military tensions. Maintaining vigilance, political will, and a clear strategy are deemed crucial to minimizing losses. The proposed TRIPP transport corridor, while potentially beneficial, is seen as a distraction from this fundamental need.
The ongoing situation underscores the importance of a realistic view and a proactive approach to security for armenia.
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