Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan Relations Remain Complex Amidst Normalization Efforts
ISTANBUL – Armenian parliamentary speaker Alen Simonyan has stated that Azerbaijan is influencing the pace of efforts to normalize relations between Turkey and Armenia, raising questions about the interconnectedness of the processes. The comments followed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s assertion that normalization with Armenia is progressing “step by step in coordination with Azerbaijan.”
The normalization process, initiated in 2022, has seen limited progress despite reaching a 17-point consensus. While Turkey and Armenia have maintained channels for dialogue, Ankara has consistently linked progress to a final peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Direct flights and the opening of the border to third-country nationals have occurred, alongside simplified visa procedures. However, a final peace agreement remains elusive, primarily due to unresolved constitutional issues and other outstanding questions. Historical context is crucial, with Turkey recognizing Armenia’s independence in 1991, though diplomatic relations have never been established.
Border closures, dating back to 1993 following the occupation of the Kalbajar district, are intertwined with regional dynamics, particularly the Karabakh conflict. The Shusha Declaration of 2021 formalized an “alliance” between Azerbaijan and Turkey. Analysts suggest Turkey’s engagement with Armenia is driven by broader geopolitical interests, including energy, security, and regional influence, rather than solely by pressure from lobbying groups.
The “Azerbaijan factor” is acknowledged, reflecting the strategic coordination between the two nations. Despite Simonyan’s concerns, progress has been made, including six rounds of talks between Armenian and Turkish special envoys, the resumption of direct flights, and the implementation of simplified visa procedures. Turkey’s foreign ministry has repeatedly emphasized its commitment to normalization contingent upon a final peace agreement.
The situation underscores the complex interplay between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey, and the ongoing negotiations surrounding a lasting resolution.
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“It’s disheartening to see continued obstacles hindering progress in this long-standing conflict.”